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Old 20th September 2019, 21:42   #21
andymc
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It's only in the past 10-12 years that serious R&D has gone into producing mainstream electric cars using Li-Ion tech. Milk floats of days gone by ran on lead acid batteries, which were nowhere near as energy dense. Li-Ion may well be superseded relatively soon, but EVs will be here for decades to come.

How will a mass shift to hydrogen take place when the cost of electricity to run an EV is already significantly lower than the cost of conventional fossil fuels, even at the priciest rapid charge outlets, while hydrogen, by contrast, is substantially more expensive than petrol or diesel. If you already bristle at paying £70 or more to fill one of our 75s, imagine how unhappy you'd be at the prospect of paying over £200 to cover similar distances on hydrogen. Of course, that assumes you can find an outlet at which to purchase some, as there are only a handful of these across the UK - four, last time I looked. By comparison, there are currently over 26000 public connectors for EVs in the UK alone. Hydrogen fuel cell cars are also more expensive and complex than today's EVs, being essentially a hydrogen-powered generator plus battery on wheels.

The cost and technical challenges of safely storing hydrogen in small vehicles is another significant barrier to its adoption in personal transport. Where I think it has a greater chance of making inroads is in mass/large scale transportation - trains, buses, bulk road transport (i.e. HGVs) and shipping.

I don't think EVs are a short-term phenomenon. As mentioned elsewhere, Daimler have announced that they will no longer be developing internal combustion engines - they see their future as electric. Volvo had previously announced similar, that by around 2024/2025 their entire fleet will be either hybrid or electric. Moreover, the investment in infrastructure that has already taken place in terms of the charging network - which is still only a fraction of what is needed - is significant, on a scale which means it won't simply be binned 20 years from now. Even the Beeching cuts to the railways didn't actually discard the entire network!
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Old 21st September 2019, 05:57   #22
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Back to the question, it seems that the average old car will just disappear, and the really valuable classics will probably be converted to electric.

As someone said, the BMW i3 and the like will be the classic of tomorrow.

Hey well, I guess we are just fighting the change because of our love affair with the internal combustion engine, and everything that goes with it, the sound, the smell etc etc.

I have been to many drag race meetings and the sound and smell of a top fuel dragster just overloads the sensors.

Electric drag racing just doesn't cut it no matter how quick they may be.
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Old 21st September 2019, 08:45   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andymc View Post
It's only in the past 10-12 years that serious R&D has gone into producing mainstream electric cars using Li-Ion tech. Milk floats of days gone by ran on lead acid batteries, which were nowhere near as energy dense. Li-Ion may well be superseded relatively soon, but EVs will be here for decades to come.

How will a mass shift to hydrogen take place when the cost of electricity to run an EV is already significantly lower than the cost of conventional fossil fuels, even at the priciest rapid charge outlets, while hydrogen, by contrast, is substantially more expensive than petrol or diesel. If you already bristle at paying £70 or more to fill one of our 75s, imagine how unhappy you'd be at the prospect of paying over £200 to cover similar distances on hydrogen. Of course, that assumes you can find an outlet at which to purchase some, as there are only a handful of these across the UK - four, last time I looked. By comparison, there are currently over 26000 public connectors for EVs in the UK alone. Hydrogen fuel cell cars are also more expensive and complex than today's EVs, being essentially a hydrogen-powered generator plus battery on wheels.

The cost and technical challenges of safely storing hydrogen in small vehicles is another significant barrier to its adoption in personal transport. Where I think it has a greater chance of making inroads is in mass/large scale transportation - trains, buses, bulk road transport (i.e. HGVs) and shipping.

I don't think EVs are a short-term phenomenon. As mentioned elsewhere, Daimler have announced that they will no longer be developing internal combustion engines - they see their future as electric. Volvo had previously announced similar, that by around 2024/2025 their entire fleet will be either hybrid or electric. Moreover, the investment in infrastructure that has already taken place in terms of the charging network - which is still only a fraction of what is needed - is significant, on a scale which means it won't simply be binned 20 years from now. Even the Beeching cuts to the railways didn't actually discard the entire network!
I dont think this will be the case, you can have as many EV points you like but the national grid is on its knees, at 98% capacity in GB, it wont take all the 9 till 5 workers coming home and plugging IN, black outs are happening more and more, and that cheap electric, who's going to pay for that cost ? once petrol/Diesel , is out the way? yeap !you guessed it joe public so that cheap electric is a gonner

Hydrogen may not be feasible now but going to look cheap with electric prices then and EOL costs to those superposed to green batteries...NO EV cars will not be here in 30 years it will be something else we don't have with a combustion engine yet, aircraft cant fly on batteries either, nor can trucks to any super miles they have to cover with Batteries plus pulling power, The combustion is still king even if its not four star/diesel running on them in the future, its something we don yet know what it is, EVS are NOT the answer

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Old 21st September 2019, 10:10   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andymc View Post
It's only in the past 10-12 years that serious R&D has gone into producing mainstream electric cars using Li-Ion tech. Milk floats of days gone by ran on lead acid batteries, which were nowhere near as energy dense. Li-Ion may well be superseded relatively soon, but EVs will be here for decades to come.

How will a mass shift to hydrogen take place when the cost of electricity to run an EV is already significantly lower than the cost of conventional fossil fuels, even at the priciest rapid charge outlets, while hydrogen, by contrast, is substantially more expensive than petrol or diesel. If you already bristle at paying £70 or more to fill one of our 75s, imagine how unhappy you'd be at the prospect of paying over £200 to cover similar distances on hydrogen. Of course, that assumes you can find an outlet at which to purchase some, as there are only a handful of these across the UK - four, last time I looked. By comparison, there are currently over 26000 public connectors for EVs in the UK alone. Hydrogen fuel cell cars are also more expensive and complex than today's EVs, being essentially a hydrogen-powered generator plus battery on wheels.

The cost and technical challenges of safely storing hydrogen in small vehicles is another significant barrier to its adoption in personal transport. Where I think it has a greater chance of making inroads is in mass/large scale transportation - trains, buses, bulk road transport (i.e. HGVs) and shipping.

I don't think EVs are a short-term phenomenon. As mentioned elsewhere, Daimler have announced that they will no longer be developing internal combustion engines - they see their future as electric. Volvo had previously announced similar, that by around 2024/2025 their entire fleet will be either hybrid or electric. Moreover, the investment in infrastructure that has already taken place in terms of the charging network - which is still only a fraction of what is needed - is significant, on a scale which means it won't simply be binned 20 years from now. Even the Beeching cuts to the railways didn't actually discard the entire network!



Yes you're correct, it isn't a short term phenomenon, the UK government have just invested £400million on new rapid charging points & infrastructure. https://insideevs.com/news/370639/uk...ns-investment/




A lot of docks are gearing up for the onslaught of BEV deliveries with charging stations like this.


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Last edited by Lancpudn; 21st September 2019 at 10:20..
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Old 21st September 2019, 12:01   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Olde faithful View Post
I dont think this will be the case, you can have as many EV points you like but the national grid is on its knees, at 98% capacity in GB, it wont take all the 9 till 5 workers coming home and plugging IN, black outs are happening more and more, and that cheap electric, who's going to pay for that cost ? once petrol/Diesel , is out the way? yeap !you guessed it joe public so that cheap electric is a gonner

Hydrogen may not be feasible now but going to look cheap with electric prices then and EOL costs to those superposed to green batteries...NO EV cars will not be here in 30 years it will be something else we don't have with a combustion engine yet, aircraft cant fly on batteries either, nor can trucks to any super miles they have to cover with Batteries plus pulling power, The combustion is still king even if its not four star/diesel running on them in the future, its something we don yet know what it is, EVS are NOT the answer
A few things to address there ...

A huge percentage of the UK's current power use is actually taken up with refining fossil fuels. In the UK alone, oil refineries use 5620 GWh of electricity per annum. That's the consumption required just to get the fuel as far as the pumps. Clearly, a move to EVs would result in a drastic FALL in this particular area of demand on the grid. The net effect is that if every ICE car were to be replaced by an EV, the overall increase in demand on the grid would be something in the order of 8%.

It's a misconception to think that everybody with an EV would arrive home from work every day and plug it in to charge straight away, crashing the grid around 6pm. Obviously there are plenty of outliers, but the average driver in the UK covers just over 7000 miles a year, or about 21 miles per day - with today's mid-range EVs (let alone the longer range ones that are in the pipeline a couple of years from now), this would mean one overnight charge every week to ten days. Not every day.

You reckon the era of cheap electricity is a goner? On the contrary, the cost of offshore wind production is continuing to fall and is now below the overall current market price. Good news for us all, as it will see our electricity bills reduce.

You reckon that trucks aren't capable of running on electricity? Best let Amazon know that, seeing as they've ordered 100000 of them from Rivian. For larger scale HGVs, you may be interested in checking the specs of the Tesla Semi. 500 miles on a single charge, 30 minutes to add a further 400 miles of range, lower running costs than a diesel HGV and better pulling power, especially uphill.

"End" of life for batteries in vehicles is deemed to be when they fall below 70% capacity. So today's Kia e-Soul, for example, will still have a combined range of 160 miles on a single charge by the time it will have "failed". Capacity is very easy to measure and the data thus far indicates that for EVs produced in the past 5-6 years, batteries can be expected to last some 900,000 miles. The rest of the car will be scrap long before the battery.

But this doesn't mean so-called "end of life" EV batteries actually get scrapped along with the rest of the car, it means they become an asset which gets repurposed for commercial and domestic power storage. Don't forget that a 50kWh battery whose capacity has gradually dropped to 35kWh over the years will still be capable of providing all the average UK household's power requirements for three days solid. As this becomes more widespread, it will help greatly with "smoothing out" the peaks & troughs of grid demand. The main reason night rate electricity is cheaper is because there's less demand at night, but it's too costly to ramp production up and down. With the adoption of battery storage, power produced overnight can be stored on-site and used during the day, when demand is at is peak.

In short, EVs ARE the answer!
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Old 21st September 2019, 12:03   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andymc View Post
It's only in the past 10-12 years that serious R&D has gone into producing mainstream electric cars using Li-Ion tech. Milk floats of days gone by ran on lead acid batteries, which were nowhere near as energy dense. Li-Ion may well be superseded relatively soon, but EVs will be here for decades to come.

How will a mass shift to hydrogen take place when the cost of electricity to run an EV is already significantly lower than the cost of conventional fossil fuels, even at the priciest rapid charge outlets, while hydrogen, by contrast, is substantially more expensive than petrol or diesel. If you already bristle at paying £70 or more to fill one of our 75s, imagine how unhappy you'd be at the prospect of paying over £200 to cover similar distances on hydrogen. Of course, that assumes you can find an outlet at which to purchase some, as there are only a handful of these across the UK - four, last time I looked. By comparison, there are currently over 26000 public connectors for EVs in the UK alone. Hydrogen fuel cell cars are also more expensive and complex than today's EVs, being essentially a hydrogen-powered generator plus battery on wheels.

The cost and technical challenges of safely storing hydrogen in small vehicles is another significant barrier to its adoption in personal transport. Where I think it has a greater chance of making inroads is in mass/large scale transportation - trains, buses, bulk road transport (i.e. HGVs) and shipping.

I don't think EVs are a short-term phenomenon. As mentioned elsewhere, Daimler have announced that they will no longer be developing internal combustion engines - they see their future as electric. Volvo had previously announced similar, that by around 2024/2025 their entire fleet will be either hybrid or electric. Moreover, the investment in infrastructure that has already taken place in terms of the charging network - which is still only a fraction of what is needed - is significant, on a scale which means it won't simply be binned 20 years from now. Even the Beeching cuts to the railways didn't actually discard the entire network!
Since a lot of electricity generation is based on combusting carbon fuels, the lower cost of electricity is just a reflection of taxation. Hydrogen is the only neutral combustion available, provided the generation of hydrogen is done with renewable energy like wind, waves sun or water.
Storage is a problem, but there is no reason to assume that could not be solved as indeed the energy density is being improved for electric systems.
As for predictions on what will be binned, and how fast, is only dependent on your imagination, or lack of same, as may be the case.
A similar point of view could well have been holding sway regarding horses, feeding lots, stables, cleaning and watering say 120 years ago.

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Old 22nd September 2019, 01:18   #27
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Continuing AndyMCs train of thought,- some future government may decree that all households have a full solar array. Most people I know who have a 4kw solar array pay very little, if anything for electricity, indeed many of the older installations, when the feed-in tariff was high (it has been completely discontinued for new installations since March this year) regularly paid out more than their owners used. Domestic solar panels could therefore keep a large battery fully charged, ready to transfer to your EV at any time, avoiding peak time shortages.
Of course, as new safety features such as parking assistance and lane guidance and auto braking become the norm, and our older cars without such features are deemed less safe, we may find insurance costs drive us off the road, indeed, if self driving cars become the norm, or even the law, then we may only be allowed to trailer our cars to closed roads and racetracks for a run out, on home-brewed fuel. I'm not sure my CDT would respond too well to cooking oil, (too sophisticated) but my old Mitsubishi diesel is quite happy on the stuff for much of the year, as were some of my old Pugs and Citroens!
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Old 22nd September 2019, 03:46   #28
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We are doomed Captain Mainwaring!

Thanks for bringing the conversation back to the future of classic cars.

It is beginning to look like it is possibly the end of the road for classic cars, well actually driving them anyway.
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This vehicle was the 104,679th 75 to run off the production line, out of 112,381
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Old 22nd September 2019, 06:48   #29
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I have been reading this and something that seems to been forgotten is the oil companies, they make millions every day and I am sure they are not going to sit back and and let us all convert to EV with out some sort of fight.

My feeling is ice powered vehicles will still be about for many years unless they find a way of extending the range. Commercial vehicles often do many miles a day with little or no downtime and vehicles like ambulces are used 24 7 so they will have to come up with a solution to that.

I feel if we come back in 50 years it might not be as different as we fear.
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Old 22nd September 2019, 13:02   #30
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I have been reading this and something that seems to been forgotten is the oil companies, they make millions every day and I am sure they are not going to sit back and and let us all convert to EV with out some sort of fight.

My feeling is ice powered vehicles will still be about for many years unless they find a way of extending the range. Commercial vehicles often do many miles a day with little or no downtime and vehicles like ambulces are used 24 7 so they will have to come up with a solution to that.

I feel if we come back in 50 years it might not be as different as we fear.
The oil companies are already shifting into the charging route LINK as just one example, and recently saw an ad for BP Power - as in household electric.

If you think how electric vehicles have come on in just the past ten years after a concerted effort, I can easily believe the technology will have become commonplace for a 600 mile range for a car, with quick charge batteries. The quick charge batteries will be deemed too dangerous to charge at home so will need to be charged via a charging station (current oil companies). With the supply partially from solar and wind power located within a station (instead of tanks) as well as a supply from a power plant operated by a former oil company. With cables supplying these stations without the need of a fleet of oil tankers to supply the underground tanks.

What will really accelerate this 'revolution' will be banning of initially private ICEs in exclusion zones. With the ban of new ICEs from 2030 (possibly earlier - 2025 in some places), by 2050, it would be realistic that ICEs will be a rare sight on the road. Think how often you see a Triumph car (of any type), a mark 2 Capri, mk3 Cortine on the road? These cars are roughly 45-50 years old now, which our cars would be by 2050. Ignoring rust for the time being (because you can consider non rust affected countries eg spain), a lot of these cars were put off the road because of a lack of parts, as well as leaded fuel. You could consider it a natural selection for cars. People buy them on trend, availability and convenience.

I dont think your term of I feel if we come back in 50 years it might not be as different as we fear. is complete. I feel if we come back in 50 years it might not be as different nor as difficult as we fear. would be more accurate.
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