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Old 1st July 2020, 21:46   #141
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I'm afraid there has never been an effective vaccine produced to counter any coronavirus, and this one most likely won't be the exception.

So instead of listening to the nonsense being spoon fed to the public daily by a handwringing media, often amplified by people with vested interests, why not simply accept this is here to stay and deal with that reality.

Not every person will die with Covid-19, more so, it is not conducive to the health of the nation to exclude other conditions from treatment, at the expense of Covid-19

It needs to be considered that there are millions of healthy young adults who are desperately trying to keep their lives from being ruined as a result of the measures put in place, as an ill considered attempt at prevention of the spread of the virus, this to me is more damaging than the actual virus itself.

So yes the virus is still there, as it always will...... the genie cannot be put back in the bottle, we can either accept that we have been beaten by an invisible foe, or simply get on with life as best we can.

There are worse things in life than Covid-19, and it is certainly not worthy of unnecessarily ruining the lives of many millions of people in this country.

Once people grasp the concept that none of us are immortal, and the best course of action isn't always hiding in the pillow fort with your fingers in your ears singing la la la la la loudly, but to quantify your life by actually living it, and accept you must take risks in life in order to achieve quality of existence, the better

Phew, I've had a fun day at work today, brilliant in fact

Brian
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Old 1st July 2020, 22:24   #142
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If the NHS gets overwhelmed then we will all be on a slippery slope.
To me the answer seems to be to try and keep the NHS working just under maximum capacity but at the same time to continuously boost the NHS capacity to accept larger and larger numbers of patients.

If we go on the way we are at the moment it is going to take many years to effect a recovery. ( If fact it may never be the same again. ) It seems that as more and more info comes out about a vaccine the less chance there seems to be that it will ever happen.

Also social restrictions will without doubt come and go.
The frequency will be a sort of guide line on how well the NHS is coping.

The figures show that that half of those folk who have become victims of Covid-19 were over 80 years of age so I'll take this opportunity to get my Goodbye in now rather than let others say it for me later.---


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Old 1st July 2020, 22:28   #143
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Then we have this happening:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/53248531

I am desperatly saddend as to what has happened to the 21st century society we live in. It seems as if folks want to make life difficult for everyone. We could have dealt with this so well if we'd had a little more common sense, understanding and respect for the virus, each other and not least those we trust in leading us through it. If only.
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Old 1st July 2020, 22:42   #144
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Quote:
Originally Posted by COLVERT View Post
If the NHS gets overwhelmed then we will all be on a slippery slope.
To me the answer seems to be to try and keep the NHS working just under maximum capacity but at the same time to continuously boost the NHS capacity to accept larger and larger numbers of patients.

If we go on the way we are at the moment it is going to take many years to effect a recovery. ( If fact it may never be the same again. ) It seems that as more and more info comes out about a vaccine the less chance there seems to be that it will ever happen.

Also social restrictions will without doubt come and go.
The frequency will be a sort of guide line on how well the NHS is coping.

The figures show that that half of those folk who have become victims of Covid-19 were over 80 years of age so I'll take this opportunity to get my Goodbye in now rather than let others say it for me later.---

15% of total capacity.

What exactly is that I hear you say Jon, that was the peak utilisation of critical care resources during the period from the beginning of April to the end of June 2020 in the The Newcastle Upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust area.

This is a figure artificially lowered from the norm, by the cancellation of elective surgeries, and the dramatic decline of hospital visits for other conditions.

I'd not worry about being knacked by the virus, you've more chance of being SMIDSYd than succumbing to Covid

Brian
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Old 2nd July 2020, 07:46   #145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Borg Warner View Post
...
Overall, a total of 9,662,051 tests have been carried out and 313,483 cases have been confirmed as positive.

The figure for the number of people tested has been "temporarily paused to ensure consistent reporting" across all methods of testing.


Whilst some 11000 jobs are going.

So, with pausing the figure for number of people tested, and by implication not the figure for positive tests, the impression given will be that a higher percentage of tests return positive results. From the number given that is currently standing at ... 3.2%. Yes, a whopping 3.2% of those getting tested return a positive result. Let's remember that those being tested are either; displaying extreme symptomatic symptoms, work for the NHS, or are politicians, or have some other fona bide qualification for getting tested. Mmmm. Let's coveniently ignore the facts that a positive result could mean anything from, you've got a cold, through you had a flu vaccination to you've got measles or Ebola or any other Coronavirus, dead or alive, in your system.




Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRuss View Post
You've got to ask what the heck is going on when they're talking about further lockdowns in areas where the infection rate is actually falling not rising as they claim.

Bradford is apparently next on the list although the infection rate has dropped by 29% and also a bit further down the list Kirklees where it's dropped by 49% both in the last week.

These are from PHE's own figures

Russ

The only numbers that I've actually found supporting the Leicester lockdown claimed that 10% of positive cases over the past 7 days were attributed to Leicester, given the extreme low rate of positive results why woulld anyone be surprised at a random clumps appearing, next week 10% of positive cases will be attributed to Northampton or Wakefield, not really significant.




Quote:
Originally Posted by COLVERT View Post
If the NHS gets overwhelmed then we will all be on a slippery slope.
To me the answer seems to be to try and keep the NHS working just under maximum capacity but at the same time to continuously boost the NHS capacity to accept larger and larger numbers of patients.

If we go on the way we are at the moment it is going to take many years to effect a recovery. ( If fact it may never be the same again. ) It seems that as more and more info comes out about a vaccine the less chance there seems to be that it will ever happen.

Also social restrictions will without doubt come and go.
The frequency will be a sort of guide line on how well the NHS is coping.

The figures show that that half of those folk who have become victims of Covid-19 were over 80 years of age so I'll take this opportunity to get my Goodbye in now rather than let others say it for me later.---

I find myself largely agreeing with you. We missed an opportunity - Nightingale hospitals were setup around the country to cope with hospital overflow at some expense and barely utilised: now mothballed and forgotten by the media at least. With the right risk warnings available and furlough available people should have been given the choice over self imposed isolation (why the **** is it continually called 'lockdown'?? no-one is forcibly locked in their houses: this isn't China after all.)


Quote:
Originally Posted by marinabrian View Post
15% of total capacity.

What exactly is that I hear you say Jon, that was the peak utilisation of critical care resources during the period from the beginning of April to the end of June 2020 in the The Newcastle Upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust area.

This is a figure artificially lowered from the norm, by the cancellation of elective surgeries, and the dramatic decline of hospital visits for other conditions.

I'd not worry about being knacked by the virus, you've more chance of being SMIDSYd than succumbing to Covid

Brian



Well in % terms the chance of a SMIDSY on my bike is actually 1.5% of all accidents. The chance of an accident in any one year is 0.2% that's 200 in 100,000 if you, the reader, like the media, prefer the biggest numbers you can find, the overall chances of a SMIDSY are then 0.0015% (corrected from 0.15) or 1.5 in 100,000.


As an aside, I was told my risk of developing cancer giving my family history is around 6%. If testing shows that I have both of the genes involved, which I well might, then the chance would rise to 12%.
So there you go, there's risks everywhere in life, some we have no say over, and others we choose to accept as they're worth the reward. The latter has always been an individual decision up until March this year.
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Last edited by Avulon; 2nd July 2020 at 09:47.. Reason: What's one or two decimal places between friends?
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Old 2nd July 2020, 08:48   #146
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Although we have had 30 years to prepare for what should be done in the event of an influenza pandemic, I think we have all been rushing around trying to improvise investigations with insufficient time to do it properly. We can only hope that people will have taken advantage of their opportunities and at the end it may be possible to construct an adequate explanation of what happened.’1 So wrote J Corbett McDonald of the Public Health Laboratory Service, to Ian Watson, Director of the College of General Practitioners' Epidemic Observation Unit in the autumn of 1957. He was referring to that year's Asian flu pandemic. In the event, neither the Unit nor the PHLS undertook any large scale research projects during the outbreak and later studies were limited. The Unit's retrospective investigation had a response from 42 practices, of which only 29 provided useable data. Could or should more have been done? By 1957, unlike 1918, there was a global network of laboratories linked to the World Influenza Research Centre in London, which aimed to create a clearing house for research and tracking the virus.

https://bjgp.org/content/59/565/622
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Old 2nd July 2020, 10:49   #147
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I worked in Emergency Planning for some 8 years, from the time of the Millennium Bug and through the after effects of 9/11 and 7/7. Visited the Temporary Mortuary of the latter at the Right Honourable Artillery Barracks in London as I was the lead author for my employer's (a large Local Authority) TM plan at the time. It was empty by the way.

Emergency Planning, Disaster Management, Contingency Planning and Business Continuity are fascinating subjects but mostly misunderstood and very expensive. One thing that people misunderstand is that of getting things into place prior to things kicking off. Now with weather events that is fairly simple; high winds, floods, snow even with our weather forecasters we generally get it right. In addition the effects are mostly known and understood and we can have plans in place to mitigate for the effects. This current event is not understood, which is why it is being seen and reported as being mishandled. The Nightingales are a case in point. If they had not been built and needed there would have been uproar, they have been built and not needed - that is good which ever way it is viewed.

The more I read about this the more it doesn't add up. I thought right at the start the UK government were going to have a huge problem with the media and the public. The panic that is now "endemic" in our society is in no small part due to the media, including social media (and there is also a political agenda). I remember dealing with the F&M outbreak in 2001 and how the press were focusing on various elements of the response and the government were being forced to address issues on a micro level.

There are some 1.25m employees at the NHS and with a lot of procedures stopped, what have they been doing? There were also announcements saying that the government had bought up capacity in the private health care sector; what happened there? My wife has had two cancer checkups cancelled and is increasingly nervous about getting to the the replacement. On other forums I have heard anecdotal stories of how busy the hospitals have been, yet Brian's experience seems to be contrary that? A nurse Sister relative of ours asked to be transferred to a Covid ward because her current role in the coronary care ward had stopped, what happened to all of the heart attack patients? At the height of this incident all we could see, hear and read was of the shortage of PPE, yet I distinctly recall the BBC interviewing, on separate occasions, three front line nursing staff asking them about the PPE shortages and all of them saying it wasn't an issue? Strangely the interviews were quickly ended.

I don't think this incident will be understood until after it is over and it can be analysed thoroughly and from ALL aspects. Not least the role of the media/social media, they have a lot to answer for I think.

A full, open and honest inquiry is needed. Let's hope we get one.
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Old 2nd July 2020, 17:45   #148
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Until they have a cure or a vaccination that will work I won't be going out socially anytime soon, unless it is for medical reasons.

Unfortunately for me if I get Covid-19 it's a pine box!

Food I get delivered.

I have nearly every TV Channel I can get; Netflix, Amazon Prime, NowTV which I added Sky Sports to.

Formula 1 starts again on Friday and the Cricket is starting soon with England v Windies.

Thankfully I have a garden which is nice when the sun is out.

I've kept my car running mostly by sitting in it and letting it run every couple of weeks.
Thankfully I went for an hours drive on Wednesday to make sure everything was okay after a visit to Tesco's to check the tyres.
You pay 50p to use the machine but it's the most accurate one around and kept in excellent condition unlike the free machine at Sainsburys.
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Old 2nd July 2020, 18:00   #149
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Commiserations! Look at every day you escape infection as a victory. Make tentative plans for 'afterwards', like a day or two away somewhere so you enjoy the money you are saving!
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Old 2nd July 2020, 18:00   #150
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neil1 View Post
Until they have a cure or a vaccination that will work I won't be going out socially anytime soon, unless it is for medical reasons.

Unfortunately for me if I get Covid-19 it's a pine box!

Food I get delivered.

I have nearly every TV Channel I can get; Netflix, Amazon Prime, NowTV which I added Sky Sports to.

Formula 1 starts again on Friday and the Cricket is starting soon with England v Windies.

Thankfully I have a garden which is nice when the sun is out.

I've kept my car running mostly by sitting in it and letting it run every couple of weeks.
Thankfully I went for an hours drive on Wednesday to make sure everything was okay after a visit to Tesco's to check the tyres.
You pay 50p to use the machine but it's the most accurate one around and kept in excellent condition unlike the free machine at Sainsburys.

That just about sums me up. To be honest my wife is more worried than I, I'm somewhat more philosophical over it all. But to say I am increasingly going around the bend with it all is perhaps an understatement. That's putting it mildly. I'm planning on meeting up with a former colleague up at Lakenheath to spot the F15s again sooner rather than later. It will be a nice change of scenery and I can catch up with some (former) work gossip.

However on a positive note we were discussing a 20/21 Christmas/New Year break in Scotland earlier today. Hopefully this will all be (sort of) resolved by then. It has to be.
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