Trade deal after Brexit

[Stevie25]

Imagine the Brexiter outrage if Remain had won with 52%, and then Remainers wanted a Hard Remain with EU superstate integration, Schengen, Euro currency, EU army - while paying £50 billion to obtain this.

[wraymond]

To continue the debate on Economics with reference to changing times and economic climates.

So much guesswork, so many negative projections from those who should and do know better. Fake assumptions that fly in the face of minimally publicised good news and a morbid dread of any future prospect of their gilded lifestyles being affected.

First, a validation of source.

A report is now ‘out’ from The Resolution Foundation referring to actual performance of the UK economy. For those that are unfamiliar with this organisation (no connection to me) it is a group of eminent and demonstrably independent commentators which was formed long before current developments gave rise to the Grimm-like fairy tales that now abound. The foundation was formed to examine so-called Think Tanks and rate them on several categories concerned with funding origin, accurate public information and news publishing.

Think Tanks are widely used by governments and pressure groups to publicise trends and projections which suit their purpose so it seemed reasonable to monitor them. I offer the Resolution Foundation as a counter to those who deliberately bad-mouth and talk down this country’s performance and by minimising the national character and prospects for the future.

They say today:
Robust economic growth is set to deliver a budget boost of £10 billion, due to a reduction in borrowing from the forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility just four months ago!

That Office is extremely embarrassed, it is the official Treasury watchdog. They claimed at the last budget that borrowing would be £91 billion higher than previously expected over the next five years. These are the widely assumed experts in these matters and their words have an enormous effect on our finances and international confidence in UK. Mark Carney just loves’em.

Wage growth is finally picking up and day-to-day State spending is back in the black for the first time since 2002. The country recorded its strongest six months for productivity for six years. The current budget is in surplus for the first time since 2002.

In itself not exactly a new dawn, yet, but my word what a difference to some of the rubbish from so-called experts. What’s the betting you won’t see a word of it on the BBC news!

www.resolutionfoundation.org

[Gate Keeper]

I visited the link you put up Ray and entered into the search bar, Brexit. The latest report was done by Tursten Bell Director was Director of the Labour Policy Unit. Here is a snippet a “No deal Scenario” I am not sure what model of theory it is based on, but he does say in essence, that nothing is certain. Thanks for the link. It made for interesting reading

”The heart of a “no deal” Brexit outcome is that the UK and EU fails to sign a new trade agreement. In that scenario government policy (and WTO rules) are that we would levy the same, so-called most-favoured-nation (MFN), tariffs on imports from the EU as from other partners where no separate agreement exists. That means either from March 2019 (or after any transition period agreed), tariffs on clothing and drink from the EU would rise from zero to 10 per cent, those on dairy products like milk and cheese by 45 per cent and those on meat by 37 per cent. The level of these new tariffs is as close to facts as we get in current Brexit debates.

Crucially they would feed through into consumer prices. The extent of that impact depends on the size of tariffs imposed on trade with the EU, the extent to which the UK currently relies on imports of that good, and how much of that reliance is in practice on imports from the EU. Our preference for EU built cars means vehicle would see a 5.5 per cent price increase, while the price of clothing would rise by 2.4 per cent, partly because we buy clothes from a wider range of countries outside the EU.

Food would be the area most affected – not only because the tariffs would be substantial but because we both import a lot of it and do so overwhelmingly from the EU. The prices of dairy goods would rise by an average of 8.1 per cent and meat would go up by 5.8 per cent.

“While we are only able to do this modelling for goods making up around 40 per cent of our consumption spending we can see that it would mean a significant squeeze on family finances, pushing up costs of current consumption of these goods by an average of 2.7 per cent or £260. Over three million families would see the cost of their shopping go up by more than £500.

Crucially, as with the impact of the fast rising inflation in recent months on the back of sterling’s depreciation, it is lower income households that would likely bear the most significant burden. The impact on those near the bottom of the income distribution would be a third greater than for those near the top as a share of overall consumption”

[Darcydog]

Originally Posted by Gate Keeper

I visited the link you put up Ray and entered into the search bar, Brexit. The latest report was done by Tursten Bell Director was Director of the Labour Policy Unit. Here is a snippet a “No deal Scenario” I am not sure what model of theory it is based on, but he does say in essence, that nothing is certain. Thanks for the link. It made for interesting reading

”The heart of a “no deal” Brexit outcome is that the UK and EU fails to sign a new trade agreement. In that scenario government policy (and WTO rules) are that we would levy the same, so-called most-favoured-nation (MFN), tariffs on imports from the EU as from other partners where no separate agreement exists. That means either from March 2019 (or after any transition period agreed), tariffs on clothing and drink from the EU would rise from zero to 10 per cent, those on dairy products like milk and cheese by 45 per cent and those on meat by 37 per cent. The level of these new tariffs is as close to facts as we get in current Brexit debates.

Crucially they would feed through into consumer prices. The extent of that impact depends on the size of tariffs imposed on trade with the EU, the extent to which the UK currently relies on imports of that good, and how much of that reliance is in practice on imports from the EU. Our preference for EU built cars means vehicle would see a 5.5 per cent price increase, while the price of clothing would rise by 2.4 per cent, partly because we buy clothes from a wider range of countries outside the EU.

Food would be the area most affected – not only because the tariffs would be substantial but because we both import a lot of it and do so overwhelmingly from the EU. The prices of dairy goods would rise by an average of 8.1 per cent and meat would go up by 5.8 per cent.

“While we are only able to do this modelling for goods making up around 40 per cent of our consumption spending we can see that it would mean a significant squeeze on family finances, pushing up costs of current consumption of these goods by an average of 2.7 per cent or £260. Over three million families would see the cost of their shopping go up by more than £500.

Crucially, as with the impact of the fast rising inflation in recent months on the back of sterling’s depreciation, it is lower income households that would likely bear the most significant burden. The impact on those near the bottom of the income distribution would be a third greater than for those near the top as a share of overall consumption”

Interesting figures - as they underline just how screwed up the EU’s CAP is. My point would be :-

A) post Brexit we will be able to buy food from non EU sources so the high tariffs the EU applies would not apply to imports from non-EU nations.

B) I don’t much like Gove - but what he said about the UK’s agricultural policy in the years after Brexit made a lot of sense to me.
Why do we not grow our own foodstuffs here in the U.K. ?
Why do we grow hectares and hectares of Oil Seed Rape?
Why do we pay already rich landowners huge sums under the EU Set aside requirements to do nothing?

The reason is the CAP - so if we can grow our own food as well as import from the world where the crazily high EU internal tariffs do not apply - then the doom and gloom scenario looks one heck of a lot brighter.

[mbev51]

Hi, I am at last reading an almost sensible Brexit thread. Where has the fire gone from the Brexiteers towards us remoaners? At some point this year, I believe the wheels will come off the apple cart. Firstly, the benefits of leaving are getting hard to see and seem to be rebuffed repeatedly, secondly, it's hard to imagine a solution to the the Irish question that would be acceptable to all parties. At the end of the day did people vote to loose their jobs and living standards? It will be an interesting year.

[Stevie25]

Originally Posted by mbev51

Hi, I am at last reading an almost sensible Brexit thread. Where has the fire gone from the Brexiteers towards us remoaners? At some point this year, I believe the wheels will come off the apple cart. Firstly, the benefits of leaving are getting hard to see and seem to be rebuffed repeatedly, secondly, it's hard to imagine a solution to the the Irish question that would be acceptable to all parties. At the end of the day did people vote to loose their jobs and living standards? It will be an interesting year.

I repeat again - Brexits 'inconvenient Truth' the NI/ROI border issue.

Mr Tusk said today: "If in London someone assumes that the negotiations will deal with other issues first before moving to the Irish issue, my response would be 'Ireland First'."

[Darcydog]

You find some great quotes regarding the EU if you Research a bit - what about these:-

(The Maastricht treaty) .... “takes away from National Parliaments the power to set economic policy and hands it over to an unelected st of bankers who will impose the economic policies of price stability, deflation and high unemployment throughout the European Community.”

House of Commons May 20 1993

And on the CAP and it’s dreadful knock on effects h:-

“It is morally wrong that the US Government and the EU Commission pay farmers to over-produce. They then use tax payers money to buy the over-production, so it is already a double purchase, and it is then shipped at enormous public cost across the seas to be dumped as maize on African societies. That destroys all the local agriculture and leads to urbanisation and all the problems that go with it.

House of Commons May 26 2005

And on the atrocious behaviour of the EU to Greece recently:-

“There is no future for a Europe that turns its smaller nations into colonies of debt peonage.

If Europe becomes a totally brutal organisation that treats everyone of its member states in the way that the people of Greece have been treated at the moment, then I think Europe will lose a lot of support from a lot of people”

LBC interview.

..........


Who said these words?


Jeremy Corbyn

[Darcydog]

Originally Posted by Stevie25

I repeat again - Brexits 'inconvenient Truth' the NI/ROI border issue.

Mr Tusk said today: "If in London someone assumes that the negotiations will deal with other issues first before moving to the Irish issue, my response would be 'Ireland First'."

Well Tusk would say that wouldn’t he!!!

You can’t put the cart before the horse!

And to use another metaphor - the situation is a chicken and the egg scenario. Common sense is that we need to look at the overall negotiations at the same time as sorting out the Irish border.

Tusk puts up the Irish Border question as a way of delaying things in a desperate attempt to make out he is not the intransigent one!

Rest assured - more intelligent minds will prevail

[topman]

Originally Posted by Darcydog

B) I don’t much like Gove - but what he said about the UK’s agricultural policy in the years after Brexit made a lot of sense to me.
Why do we not grow our own foodstuffs here in the U.K. ?
Why do we grow hectares and hectares of Oil Seed Rape?
Why do we pay already rich landowners huge sums under the EU Set aside requirements to do nothing?

Have the plans for farming and cap replacement been published yet? I saw a few speeches but nothing else.

[charlie 22]

Can't we go back to trading with the commonwealth and buy pass a lot unnecessary red tape. From what I know, us and the commonwealth had a good thing going before we ran off with the eu.