The future of the internal combustion engine

[RobSun]

Something else that should be considered in the possible end to the ICE and classic cars.

The CEO of Highways England has recently announced that classic cars will be off our roads in 30 years. He states that fully autonomous cars will force them off the roads as they will not be able to communicate with classics or older vehicles. He also suggested early autonomous or part autonomous vehicles would be the new classics but some of these could also be banned.

The government is pushing to legislate for these vehicles to be on the road in three years so that as a nation we can be at the forefront of the technology, improve traffic flow, cut down on congestion, and remove human error from driving so making our roads safer. BUT NO FUN.

He then says that we still have plenty of time to enjoy them before this happens. Well I will probably be gone by then or at least stopped driving, but its a sad day for you younger guys. Lets enjoy our cars while we can.

Now it has been argued (I posted this a couple of weeks ago on a classic club site) that this chap is talking rubbish and only his own thoughts. Maybe this is the case but I think not. He will be part of the bodies advising the government on future policies and also part of future transport policy planning.

Personally I agree with comments regarding private ownership, except for the very rich and powerful, it will be a thing of the past. We will pay into a pool and order our hired transport as required, with a driverless car turning up when and where required, to take us to our destination. Long journeys will probably see us deposited at a bus or train station with a car waiting at the other end to take us to the final destination.

However battery charge life may still be a big problem with some experts, including EV manufacturers, saying that battery technology is now not far off its peak. I believe its Toyota that recently said they did not think the future battery life expected by the government was realistic and will not happen. So long trips will not be possible without several recharges, hence trains and busses for lengthy trips. Hybrids or Hydrogen powered vehicles would still be needed if this is the scenario on battery life. Also as has often been said for those living in rural communities.

Long distance goods transportation would need to go by rail, but the infrastructure has long been ripped up and is unlikely to be replaced.

My other thoughts go to one of his reasonings that to me doesn't make sense. He says that classics will be off the roads because autonomous cars will not be able to communicate with them. Sounds plausible at first but an autonomous car can't confer with a horse, dog, cat, child etc so must be able to see and react to these and anything else it can't communicate with, so why not a classic car. Me thinks he shot himself in the foot with that one.

I'm cynical but suspect there are other reasons they will want classics and ICE vehicles off the road or limited, and that is pollution and fuel supply. Maybe he was playing devils advocate and he's a classic fan and wants to see them still in use for as long as possible.

[Lancpudn]

Originally Posted by RobSun

Something else that should be considered in the possible end to the ICE and classic cars.

The CEO of Highways England has recently announced that classic cars will be off our roads in 30 years. He states that fully autonomous cars will force them off the roads as they will not be able to communicate with classics or older vehicles. He also suggested early autonomous or part autonomous vehicles would be the new classics but some of these could also be banned.

The government is pushing to legislate for these vehicles to be on the road in three years so that as a nation we can be at the forefront of the technology, improve traffic flow, cut down on congestion, and remove human error from driving so making our roads safer. BUT NO FUN.

He then says that we still have plenty of time to enjoy them before this happens. Well I will probably be gone by then or at least stopped driving, but its a sad day for you younger guys. Lets enjoy our cars while we can.

Now it has been argued (I posted this a couple of weeks ago on a classic club site) that this chap is talking rubbish and only his own thoughts. Maybe this is the case but I think not. He will be part of the bodies advising the government on future policies and also part of future transport policy planning.

Personally I agree with comments regarding private ownership, except for the very rich and powerful, it will be a thing of the past. We will pay into a pool and order our hired transport as required, with a driverless car turning up when and where required, to take us to our destination. Long journeys will probably see us deposited at a bus or train station with a car waiting at the other end to take us to the final destination.

However battery charge life may still be a big problem with some experts, including EV manufacturers, saying that battery technology is now not far off its peak. I believe its Toyota that recently said they did not think the future battery life expected by the government was realistic and will not happen. So long trips will not be possible without several recharges, hence trains and busses for lengthy trips. Hybrids or Hydrogen powered vehicles would still be needed if this is the scenario on battery life. Also as has often been said for those living in rural communities.

Long distance goods transportation would need to go by rail, but the infrastructure has long been ripped up and is unlikely to be replaced.

My other thoughts go to one of his reasonings that to me doesn't make sense. He says that classics will be off the roads because autonomous cars will not be able to communicate with them. Sounds plausible at first but an autonomous car can't confer with a horse, dog, cat, child etc so must be able to see and react to these and anything else it can't communicate with, so why not a classic car. Me thinks he shot himself in the foot with that one.

I'm cynical but suspect there are other reasons they will want classics and ICE vehicles off the road or limited, and that is pollution and fuel supply. Maybe he was playing devils advocate and he's a classic fan and wants to see them still in use for as long as possible.

That ties in with eleven new mandatory safety features that have to be installed in all new cars from 2021. One being "Intelligent speed assistance"



"The system controls the speed of cars by scanning road signs “where possible”, the magazine says, but some people believe the feature is “the first step towards total governance of a car’s speed”.
I personally think they are preparing these measures for when autonomous cars and humans driving cars share the same roads.



http://www.theweek.co.uk/93687/eu-li...tory-from-2021

[andymc]

Originally Posted by RobSun

However battery charge life may still be a big problem with some experts, including EV manufacturers, saying that battery technology is now not far off its peak. I believe its Toyota that recently said they did not think the future battery life expected by the government was realistic and will not happen. So long trips will not be possible without several recharges, hence trains and busses for lengthy trips. Hybrids or Hydrogen powered vehicles would still be needed if this is the scenario on battery life. Also as has often been said for those living in rural communities.

Not surprised that it's Toyota coming out with a statement like that - they effectively backed the wrong horse and invested their R&D in hydrogen rather than EV. VW, by contrast, have recently announced a substantial change in direction towards EV - see HERE.

As for battery technology, the pattern is that battery life tends to be better than initially predicted, with the vast majority outlasting the original manufacturer warranty. I posted about this elsewhere, but essentially the lifetime of the battery is highly likely to exceed that of the rest of the car.

As the norm for battery size in affordable EVs moves from 20-30kWh to 40-70kWh (as is starting to happen now), charging patterns will naturally change. Whereas a 1st gen Leaf with a 24kWh battery would only have the capacity to go 80 or so miles on a single charge, a 64kWh Hyundai Kona available today can cover 260-300 miles before being fully discharged. The average driver in the UK covers some 8000 miles a year, or 22 miles a day - this means the average driver charging about once every 10 days.

The two factors with the most deleterious effect on battery longevity are (a) frequency of rapid charging and (b) fully charging/discharging from 100%-0%.

Rapid charging can cause the temperature of a battery to rise quickly - not so much of a problem in our climate, but more so in warmer countries. All EVs going forward should have a thermal management system to prevent excessive temperature spikes from rapid charging which can shorten battery life (the latest Nissan Leaf manages this through software which reduces the charging rate on a second or third rapid recharge - the next one will have active cooling).

Moreover, a larger-capacity battery means less frequent need to charge - especially from 100% to 0%. If an EV is operated with a charge-discharge cycle of 80-20%, it increases the lifespan of the battery from 500 charge cycles to 3500 charge cycles before it degrades to 70% of its original capacity. Even going by the lowest range figure of 260 miles, this means the aforementioned Hyundai Kona battery should have a lifespan of 910,000 miles before it can only manage to power the car for 70% of its original range.

Finally, any lingering doubts about long-term durability of EV batteries are based on the current norm of lithium ion cells. Solid state (charging in minutes, lifespan of 100000's of cycles) is where battery development is headed, as a paragraph from the article I linked to mentions ...
"Speaking of 2025, that’s the year Volkswagen predicts that they will transition their EVs to solid-state batteries. Until then, they will be using both prismatic and pouch cells, initially from Samsung and LG Chem, but representatives were clear that they may use other sources in future years."

This isn't just some marketing soundbite - VW have invested $100 million in the technology ... money they can ill afford to gamble, considering the financial cost to them of the dieselgate scandal. If solid-state batteries aren't the future, their very survival may be at stake.

[Mike Noc]

Originally Posted by Lancpudn

I personally think they are preparing these measures for when autonomous cars and humans driving cars share the same roads.

Problem is the real gains in terms of traffic flow will only come when all the vehicles on the roads are autonomous.

[Yorkshire GOC]

And in order to maintain circa 20 plus million electric vehicles, including lorries , ships and other generators the production of electricity will need to increase by a factor of 1,000 times current production to replace the energy produced by carbon fuels. So i wonder how that will be achieved - burn more gas or coal or more likely our old green friend nuclear power.

[andymc]

Nope, it would take about 8% more than current production to replace the UK's entire passenger car fleet, according to National Grid.


http://fes.nationalgrid.com/media/12...uster-v032.pdf

[Yorkshire GOC]

Originally Posted by andymc

Nope, it would take about 8% more than current production to replace the UK's entire passenger car fleet, according to National Grid.


http://fes.nationalgrid.com/media/12...uster-v032.pdf

I read that as an 8% increase to deliver at peak demand ie at 5.30 pm on a winters afternoon - what it does not say to me is the addtional energy required to be generated over 365 days to power 25 million vehicles - if we are saying the difference is only 8% in total annual consumption then we must have a lot of leccy going unused and if so why is it so expensive?

[Lovel]

Originally Posted by andymc

Nope, it would take about 8% more than current production to replace the UK's entire passenger car fleet, according to National Grid.


http://fes.nationalgrid.com/media/12...uster-v032.pdf

Taken from the attachment
According to a National Grid report, peak demand for electricity could add around 30 gigawatts to the current peak of 61GW - an increase of 50 per cent”... “The extra electricity needed will be the equivalent of almost 10 times the total power output of the new Hinckley Point C nuclear power station being built in Somerset.”

Looks more like 30GW additional realistically. Wind power produced on a daily rate ranges from very little to perhaps 10GW on a stormy day so we are going to have to find something else to power this gap.
If we add lorries, vans etc to this total then how much will they require?

I’ve been seriously looking at purchasing a BEV having test driven a number of them but the economics don’t add up to me. The biggest negative for me is that cold weather performance of the battery can drop by up to 50% in the real world use in my part of the world despite global warming it is still frrreeezin a lot of the time.

Which magazine test report over 10k miles running costs for a BEV £626/year, versus ICE £975. There is not much difference between for the inconvenience of having a BEV. I think a lot of folks thin levy is for free but as you can see in the table shown it is anything but. Road tax will not remain free that for sure once everyone jumps the BEV.

World lithium supply is not finite, perhaps there is 20 years left if every car was a BEV. Not forgetting the conditions of the poor sods who mine for the stuff on 50cents a day all so that we can look down our nose at next door neighbour and say look what we are driving.

So I spend let’s say a £500 in repairs for my banger 75 saloon in parts over a year plus fuel costs, and I then compare it to the new BEV and get hit with large depreciation and it becomes very hard to justify this outlay.

[topman]

The 30gw mentioned in that pdf is the national grid 'myth busting' although it did suggest that in one of it's own scenarios. It says that extreme and not likely.

[andymc]

Some selective reading going on there lads! An additional 30 GW is not realistic - the report makes it very clear that it's at the extreme end of possibility. There is always a surplus capacity in supply overnight. Having EVs slow-charging to top up will actually make use of it. Taken from the link:

"Peak demand is when demand is at its highest, typically around 17:30 on a winter weekday evening when homes need light and heat before factories and offices have closed."
(...)
"In our Two Degrees scenario we see the peak demand from electric vehicles alone being around 5 GW, about an 8% increase on today’s peak demand value.
(...)
Where did a peak demand of 30 GW come from?
Within FES we produced our 4 standard core scenarios, but this year we also produced some analysis on more extreme, but possible, sets of circumstances. One of these is called ‘High EV’. It looked at what the effect would be if all tail-pipe emissions were to be banned by 2040 and EV prices were to fall dramatically. In this sensitivity there would be no petrol or diesel cars on the road by 2040 – and this included hybrid EVs too; their sales will have been stopped in 2025. In this world there is little concern for broader environmental issues so, for instance, the Climate Change Act 2008 has been breached as global warming is of little concern. Also society is prosperous enough that 85% of people who could charge their cars at peak time, at peak prices, would do so. Consequently we estimated that by 2046 the peak demand as a result of electric vehicles charging at peak time would be 30 GW. However, as we stress in FES, we see this as an outlier that is possible but not one of our core scenarios."