EU vote?

[Juz]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0

[topman]

Originally Posted by Polly

. Have you ever read a report suggesting that we night loose 1 or maybe 2% of our export trade? No, all estimates assume we will loose it all.

Where did you read that exports would fall to nothing?

[Stevie25]

I may be in the minority on this particular subject BUT, having considered all the arguments I will be voting REMAIN.
My fear is if we vote leave, then when the pound drops, prices rise, we may need an emergency budget, tax rises, downward adjustments to state pensions etc.
Then, people who voted leave will be the first to complain loudest- "oh, but I was just voting on the immigration issues, I didn't think all this would happen"
The EU is not perfect - far from it - but the greater risk is leaving.
It seems to me that the Leave campaign is full of people who are well off enough not to be affected no matter what the result is - but I have worked hard all my life and don't want to put st risk my occupational pension, my upcoming travel pass, and my State pension- which I have to wait until 66, but hopefully no longer.
Just a possible outcome could mean having to give up running my R75 as a second car - say car insurance tax is increased, diesel prices increase, car duty tax increases, service and general maintenance prices increase, all due to the economy taking a downturn and the Government decide on an emergency budget to raise revenue.
All all this is just my thoughts - we all have a free, but important vote in a few weeks.

[bobthebuilder]

Originally Posted by Polly

WHAT??? "No one is saying if we vote Leave Europe will stop trading with us" that is exactly what the whole of the IN campaign IS saying. Every single forecast is based on an assumption that Europe would close the shutters completely. Have you ever read a report suggesting that we night loose 1 or maybe 2% of our export trade? No, all estimates assume we will loose it all. Where in the IN campaign does it say that even if EU does impose tariffs, We will win, because we import far more than we export. And as for freedom of movement, I certainly don't expect it to be cut drastically overnight, but at least we should be able to apply the brake a little, and as for the suggestion that we have to accept free movement, well no one can predict what the government of the day might be stupid enough to accept, but why should we? There are British built cars, and British wine, and British farm produce, that we could buy, but once again no account taken of a possible extra boost to UK business if they do choose to cut of their nose to spite their faces.


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Kindly refer me to a report written by a credible institution that says all trade with the EU will cease. That's would amount to sanctions or an embargo.

What I understand is that after the UK officially announces its intension to leave, there will be two years to negotiate a 'divorce'. This will never happen in that time period so EU and UK trading will come under WTO rules and tariffs.

The Europeans will be in absolutely no rush to come to an agreement to this, why should they? The process could drag on for years and so eventually the UK will be forced to sign an agreement just to end the process, no matter how poor it is for us. 44% of our exports go to the EU, between 8 and 14.6% of the EU's exports come to us, so its clearly more in our interests to make a deal than theirs.

[Gate Keeper]

Originally Posted by mss

I suspect it may have something to do with not being able to win his battles with key competitors in the EU courts.

Interestingly, the only verifable indicator of whether the UK will be better off inside the EU or out currently is the trading performance of the financial markets. This has taken a significant downturn in the last few days since the shift in the predicted outcome.

Th trading performance of the financial markets will perhaps be the single most important factor to affect the more mature members of the population through performance of their pension funds.

Thank you, a strong point

I follow Bloomberg and it reports that the British public are disappointed over the missed opportunities from both sides to engage in rational and intelligent debate. The 'remain' scaremongering,' we are doomed and the 'exit' fraternity peddling fantasy.

Living part of the year outside of the EU, I can look in at the UK and around the world. If the exits win, the world already is disarray will be thrown into more chaos....

I vote to oppose the Exit crowd.....

[bobthebuilder]

Originally Posted by Stevie25

I may be in the minority on this particular subject BUT, having considered all the arguments I will be voting REMAIN.
My fear is if we vote leave, then when the pound drops, prices rise, we may need an emergency budget, tax rises, downward adjustments to state pensions etc.
Then, people who voted leave will be the first to complain loudest- "oh, but I was just voting on the immigration issues, I didn't think all this would happen"
The EU is not perfect - far from it - but the greater risk is leaving.
It seems to me that the Leave campaign is full of people who are well off enough not to be affected no matter what the result is - but I have worked hard all my life and don't want to put st risk my occupational pension, my upcoming travel pass, and my State pension- which I have to wait until 66, but hopefully no longer.
Just a possible outcome could mean having to give up running my R75 as a second car - say car insurance tax is increased, diesel prices increase, car duty tax increases, service and general maintenance prices increase, all due to the economy taking a downturn and the Government decide on an emergency budget to raise revenue.
All all this is just my thoughts - we all have a free, but important vote in a few weeks.

That's very well said. As already noted, the pound and FTSE 100 are taking a hammering as fears on Leave winning grow.

"Investors are bracing for more choppy trading on financial markets in the final run-up to the EU referendum after Brexit jitters knocked the pound to a seven-week low, dented share prices and fuelled demand for safer assets such as bonds and gold."

[Darcydog]

Well the markets will certainly wobble in the run-up - and I suspect whatever the result the markets will then bounce back.

But as for the various indices signalling anything - what they do indicate is entirely predictable. The FTSE 100 - on the whole large corporations working hand in glove with the EU will of course be indicating the negative gains made recently by the OUT campaign. And the FTSE 100 is down from a high of circa 6750 a year ago to about 6200.

However - the indices that reflects far more the sort of companies that pension funds are invested in is the FTSE 250 - this too is down by a similar amount

But did anyone think that a Referendum on EU membership is NOT going to make the markets wobble?

Equity Markets need to be looked at in the longer term. If anyone invests here then use the volatility via Pound(£) Cost Averaging.

The FTSE 250 stands at 16800 as at close of business Friday. Five years ago it stood at 10300.

Similarly the FTSE 100 on Friday closed at just under 6100. Five years ago it was bouncing around the 5040 to 5200 mark.

Volatility is the name of the game.

And as such Pension funds - whilst having some exposure to equities - because of their legal requirements for security actually have significant exposure to the Fixed Interest Sector - both Government Gilts and Corporate Bonds.

As a simplistic example - the M&G Gilt & Fixed Interest fund grew at 9.8% over the last 12 months - the fact sheet gives the Sector Performance as a yardstick as well.

https://www.trustnet.com/Factsheets/...e=MGGTI&univ=U

For similar reasons pension funds also hold significant exposure to Property.

Again as a simplistic example - The Aviva Property Fund has grown 7% in the last 12 months. Again the Sector performance can be seen on the fact sheet.

https://www.trustnet.com/Factsheets/...e=nupt1&univ=N

Not much of a scare story with those two markets

Trying to run yet another scare story re peoples pension is exactly that - a scare story.

I would tactfully suggest that anyone who suggests that has not got a clue about the realities of investment in general and pension investment in particular.

[bobthebuilder]

Originally Posted by Darcydog

Well the markets will certainly wobble in the run-up - and I suspect whatever the result the markets will then bounce back.

But as for the various indices signalling anything - what they do indicate is entirely predictable. The FTSE 100 - on the whole large corporations working hand in glove with the EU will of course be indicating the negative gains made recently by the OUT campaign. And the FTSE 100 is down from a high of circa 6750 a year ago to about 6200.

However - the indices that reflects far more the sort of companies that pension funds are invested in is the FTSE 250 - this too is down by a similar amount

But did anyone think that a Referendum on EU membership is NOT going to make the markets wobble?

Equity Markets need to be looked at in the longer term. If anyone invests here then use the volatility via Pound(£) Cost Averaging.

The FTSE 250 stands at 16800 as at close of business Friday. Five years ago it stood at 10300.

Similarly the FTSE 100 on Friday closed at just under 6100. Five years ago it was bouncing around the 5040 to 5200 mark.

Volatility is the name of the game.

And as such Pension funds - whilst having some exposure to equities - because of their legal requirements for security actually have significant exposure to the Fixed Interest Sector - both Government Gilts and Corporate Bonds.

As a simplistic example - the M&G Gilt & Fixed Interest fund grew at 9.8% over the last 12 months - the fact sheet gives the Sector Performance as a yardstick as well.

https://www.trustnet.com/Factsheets/...e=MGGTI&univ=U

For similar reasons pension funds also hold significant exposure to Property.

Again as a simplistic example - The Aviva Property Fund has grown 7% in the last 12 months. Again the Sector performance can be seen on the fact sheet.

https://www.trustnet.com/Factsheets/...e=nupt1&univ=N

Not much of a scare story with those two markets

Trying to run yet another scare story re peoples pension is exactly that - a scare story.

I would tactfully suggest that anyone who suggests that has not got a clue about the realities of investment in general and pension investment in particular.

Why on earth are you quoting 12 month figures? The figures I cited are what happened last week, with comment from financial journalists who will have asked the traders what caused the falls. The rise in the Leave position in the polls caused it because the City doesn't want us to leave the EU.

And your last paragraph is unnecessary.

[MSS]

Originally Posted by Stevie25

I may be in the minority on this particular subject BUT, having considered all the arguments I will be voting REMAIN.
My fear is if we vote leave, then when the pound drops, prices rise, we may need an emergency budget, tax rises, downward adjustments to state pensions etc.
Then, people who voted leave will be the first to complain loudest- "oh, but I was just voting on the immigration issues, I didn't think all this would happen"
The EU is not perfect - far from it - but the greater risk is leaving.
It seems to me that the Leave campaign is full of people who are well off enough not to be affected no matter what the result is - but I have worked hard all my life and don't want to put st risk my occupational pension, my upcoming travel pass, and my State pension- which I have to wait until 66, but hopefully no longer.
Just a possible outcome could mean having to give up running my R75 as a second car - say car insurance tax is increased, diesel prices increase, car duty tax increases, service and general maintenance prices increase, all due to the economy taking a downturn and the Government decide on an emergency budget to raise revenue.
All all this is just my thoughts - we all have a free, but important vote in a few weeks.

You may be in the minority but your post, sir, highligts an enlightened individual with a open mind.

OK - accepted - one of the minorrity.

[Polly]

Originally Posted by topman

Where did you read that exports would fall to nothing?

The governments figures are all based on worst case scenario. ie.
we will loose 48% of our export trade,
We get back 10 times what we pay in, (that one assumes the goods we export cost us nothing)


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