Are EVs really the answer in the future? I do not think so.

[wraymond]

I would imagine the 'less salubrious' parts of the world are the most receptive places for mining companies' approaches as possible sources of the materials required. The one highlighted above in outer Mongolia is a case in point. Although now destroyed, poisoned and beyond any further use, it was once beautiful tundra.

[andymc]

Originally Posted by Francophile

Good evening,


I've only just poked my nose into the General Forum and this topic caught my attention. Having recently sold on my sixty-year-old classic, and happily using the twenty-year-old 75 for my admittedly sparse everyday motoring, electric vehicles are not on my horizon. There is, however, one aspect of EV ownership which seems to have eluded my awareness, but may already have been aired in the preceding 40+ pages of this thread. If so, please bear with me.



The thought is prompted by my perfectly serviceable laptop for which I am unable to source a replacement battery at a sensible price. Since it performs adequately on the mains adapter, the only irritation is its loss of portability. It is this question which exercises my mind about the subject of EVs. Has the lifetime/durability of the monster batteries been cited anywhere? I understand that batteries have a finite and relatively limited number of charge/drain/recharge cycles. What is the life of the battery, and has the cost of battery replacement been considered in the running costs for EVs, I wonder. Further, the principal rare elements used for contemporary battery construction seem, at present, to be found in the less salubrious parts of Africa. What does that cost in exploitation, transport and energy? Have those factors been incorporated in the 'benefits' of EVs? It would be very interesting to see such information compiled by someone who knows the data and is not linked to motor industry, or other vested interests. If yes, have the figures been published?


Derek.

The battery in your laptop, or your phone for that matter, has a very small number of cells in it. This means that if one of those cells fails, the effect on overall battery capacity is significant. In an EV battery (or perhaps more accurately, "battery pack") the number of cells is considerably higher and therefore far less likely to be impacted by one failed cell.

Your understanding of batteries as having a finite and relatively limited number of charge/drain/recharge cycles is only true insofar as an EV battery will not hold the same amount of charge at 15 or 20 years of age as it did when new. Once an EV's battery capacity has fallen to 70% of what it had when it left the factory, it is deemed to have failed. However, while such a percentage drop in capacity was significant for the likes of an early Nissan Leaf from 2011/2012, which had below-average battery longevity and relatively small capacity in the first place (between 70 and 85 miles on a single charge), it probably isn't as great an issue in the likes of e.g. a Hyundai Kona, which started out with 280 miles of range on a single charge. Such a car will still cover 190 miles on a single charge even when it is deemed to have reached the point of "failure". Moreover, it will go through far less frequent charging/discharging cycles simply by virtue of the fact that its capacity is 3-4 times greater than that of the old Leaf, and therefore take longer to reach this putative point of failure.

Moreover, it's worth being aware that the number of full charge cycles a lithium ion battery is capable of completing over its lifetime is greatly increased by avoiding constant charging from near-zero to 100%. This is why most EVs are marketed as having a "usable capacity" rather than their actual capacity, which will often be some 12%-15% higher. It means the car will never fully recharge to 100%, so as to assist battery longevity. Today's EV batteries can be expected to easily outlast the rest of the car, and moreover have a second life for e.g. grid storage. It's why even a 10 year old EV will still retain a decent used value - there's a few grand's worth of usable asset under the floor.

As for rare earth elements being sourced from "less salubrious parts of Africa" - the extraction of oil in Nigeria, Iraq, Venezuala, Saudi Arabia et al doesn't appear to be a cause for concern to the degree that it deters anyone from buying a vehicle running on petrol/diesel/LPG. Why not? What makes the suffering caused by fossil fuel extraction in those places less worthy of consideration than the suffering caused in DRC by cobalt extraction. Did the Deepwater Horizon disaster inspire anyone to tear up their driving licence and commit instead to travel by pushbike? Have those factors been incorporated in the 'benefits' of ICE cars?

[Avulon]

Originally Posted by guru

I'm not quote sure how you get £60 for 160 miles? By my calculations........
160 / 3.5 (the MG normally does around 3.5miles per kwh) gives 45.71kwh
45.71 * £0.30 = £13.71 (Ecotricitys standard rate is currently 30p/kwh

and even at Ionitys extortionate 69p per kwh rate it's still only £31.54 although fortunately if we do our run to Bath all of the chargers we'd use are the cheaper Ecotricity ones plus of course we'll leave home fully charged on super cheap power

It was indeed the pricing by ionity that I was referring to, I can't remember which car I'd looked at specs for to get the figures I'm afraid, the MG seems much better than I'd calculated previously. But at the Ionity rate is a fair bit more expensive than running diesel 75, which would be about £18 for the 160 miles range. The ecotricity wins though at that £13.71 price. But still the 30pence/KWh is still more expensive than a domestic tarrif.

Originally Posted by guru

As said we tend to take 2 half hour breaks anyway on that journey so actually it won't add anything to our journey time and I suspect that most people would take a break on a journey of that length.

I normally take breaks based on driving time rather than distance. 4 hours of motorway can be over 200 miles. 4 hours of Scottish coast road, not so far.

Originally Posted by guru

I will concede that for long journeys it's not going to be as convenient however the cost saving makes it worthwhile for us. Of course battery technology is improving all the time and by the time ICE engines are banned in 2035 we'll probably have batteries that will do 400 miles and recharge in 5 minutes so very similar to petrol and diesel cars now.

Still hoping for improvements in battery technology ahead of the normal rate of improvement. Just like our ministers think that they can speed up science by lesislating.... Of course a breakthrough could be made, and I do hope it is.

Originally Posted by guru

I do also hope that people move to electric as soon as possible, the reason being that if people desperately cling on the petrol and diesel cars the government will introduce tougher and more punitive legislation to force everyone to go electric which will then forever affect those of us that want to run classic cars whereas if everyone jumps ship in the next few years naturally they'll leave us alone and we'll still be able to continue running ICE cars.

Who knows what the govt might legislate or not next? only the influencers and 'news' pushers can guess....

Originally Posted by Mike Noc

ICE engines aren't going to be banned in 2035, you just won't be able to buy a new one.

Not true, only sales of cars and, iirc light vans with ICE engines (including hybrids) will be banned (under current plans). Not diesel trains, not jet aircraft, Not lorries, coaches, buses, or motorcycles.

Originally Posted by guru

I think people are a little too hung up on this being about the environment or a tiny minority who's daily commute is over 200 miles!

So screw those guys then, they're a minority?

Originally Posted by guru

As previously stated my reasons have nothing to do with the environment and the fact my daily drivers are either a 29 year old non-catalyst Rover Sterling or a 3.5l V6 SLK go to show it's not really my primary concern. What I dislike most about environmentalists is how preachy and pious they are. You're never going to get people to change by nagging you need to make the alternative easy to live with and that's pretty much where we're at now with electric cars. Yes they're not going to suit 100% of people however neither does an ICE car, there are plenty of people for whom public transport is a better fit with their needs however the fact is that for a majority of people an EV is now a very sensible alternative.

We can all get with disliking the preachy pious, self-righteous climate disasterists.
An E.V can be a sensible alternative. But it's not a universal solution, and that should be recognised, insteading of having them rammed at us as 'the only' option.

Originally Posted by guru

I find it interesting that it only tends to be people who have never tried an EV for an extended period that berate them. I'm yet to talk to anyone who drives an EV and actually wants to go back to an ICE car. I personally look forward to a future where it's only enthusiasts that run ICE cars and I hope that happens before the government decide to tax them out of existence, once we have 500% tax on petrol and diesel it'll never be reversed even when EV's are the norm however if the change happens organically quickly enough that won't happen as they'll have no need to force it.

On that last one, I'm not really surprised, A car is a very considered purchase, I'd think that only those that had given a lot of consideration to the purchase and were already prepared to put up with the cons of EV ownership would buy them in the first place. (at this point in time anyway). And they do certainly have pros as well.

[andymc]

This is second-hand info to me, so I won't be able to answer follow-up questions, but Ionity users should search for and sign up to Maingau Einfachstromladen, either through the app or the Maingau website. Think you'll need to speak German, or at perhaps have a translation app to hand - Maingau is a German energy supplier which provides discounted rates for EV charging at around 70000 chargepoints across Europe including Ionity, Allego, Fastned, Comfortcharge, EnBW. The tariff is €0.40/kWh across the majority of European states (there may also be a connection fee, not sure) and payment is taken by direct debit. When signing up, apparently you may have to make a few attempts at putting in your postcode or IBAN before getting it to work - if you have an issue with this, the solution is likely to be that you should type these out manually rather than copying & pasting.

https://www.maingau-energie.de/e-mob...Tarif#produkte

[andymc]

Ah - the app on the play store is in English. Should make things a bit easier.


https://play.google.com/store/apps/d....maingau&hl=en

[bl52krz]

I don’t know if anyone has thought this one out, but, what happens when we leave the EU at the end of the year. What will happen to the price of the rather large amount of electricity that we get from France? Also, do people really think that electricity will stay around the same price for charging your car? The whole thing about electric cars is a scam. It is nothing more than a new way of getting more money out of your pocket. As I have said before, I would like to see what happens when millions of people have EV cars, and are going on holiday at Easter, Whitsun and the main two weeks holiday, All travelling on the M1, M6, And any other motorway, and it is all stop and start for hours, normal in other words. I can see mayhem being on the cards.Keep your EVs for me. I’m a dinosaur, but have no intention of following the herd.

[bl52krz]

I like some people’s optimism about EVs. It’s the latest dinky toy on the block! What is the tyre life on an EV? How much does it cost for a service? What is the extra wear on the road system? More potholes to look forward to? How are all these cars going to be charged out side their owners property? Are they going to change the law so that you can leave a cable over the footpath to trip people up? Or eventually someone gets electrocuted from a worn cable in the wet? Oh it’s all been well thought out hasn’t it...........not.

[Stevie25]

Also, do people really think that electricity will stay around the same price for charging your car?


Surely this is not a serious comment?
Currently, when you consume electricity at your home the Electricity Supplier has no way of knowing if that is being used for a Cooker, Lights, Television etc.
So how could if ever know that you were charging a EV?
However, perhaps if say the Daily Mail ran a story along the lines that EV cars being charged at a different rate, many millions would believe such a nonsense story.

[bl52krz]

Originally Posted by Stevie25

Also, do people really think that electricity will stay around the same price for charging your car?


Surely this is not a serious comment?
Currently, when you consume electricity at your home the Electricity Supplier has no way of knowing if that is being used for a Cooker, Lights, Television etc.
So how could if ever know that you were charging a EV?
However, perhaps if say the Daily Mail ran a story along the lines that EV cars being charged at a different rate, many millions would believe such a nonsense story.

Perhaps you should use a little bit of logic when you read my post. I E if more and more people buy EVs, to me, I don’t know about you, I imagine more electricity will be consumed than at present. Quite a noticeable difference I would think. We will be seeing quite a rise in electric prices, if only to stop people overloading our already antiquated generating capacity. I have read all the stories about people will mostly be charging their EVs at night, and when, if? all the people start plugging in, I can see that there will be a few cutouts blowing to stop any damage to transformers. The electric companies keep telling us that they are running on a knife edge of capacity. It will be nice if we have a long spell of very cold weather. You will then have to chose between lighting and heating your home, or charging your EV up. No of course it will never happen will it. Your comment about ‘how could they know if you were charging your car up’. Quite easy really. What is your current consumption? Put your EV on charge, and do you think that your consumption will stay roughly the same? Electric is monitored at the electricity generation point. It is monitored for many reasons, and you can bet that they could tell you when most people charge their cars up even now. I am a realist, not a romantic.

[Stevie25]

I may have retired from the Local Electricity Company, with a Masters Degree in Engineering, and over 25 years experience in Generation, Transmission, Distribution and Supply of Electricity and a further 7 years working in Renewable Energy and I even dare to call myself an ‘Expert’.
But you have sussed out my Business Opportunity, which I may present to Dragons Den.
The outline is that I have found a way to colour code Electrons - remember from your school days, that Electricity is a flow of Electrons.
Anyway, Blue Electrons with be designated for consumption of Electricity by electric cookers.
White Electrons for lights
Red Electrons for usage from the ring main sockets.
Finally, Green Electrons for charging EV Cars.
Just working on a Very Smart Electricity Meter that can differentiate between all the different coloured Electrons.
Mind you I have to share my ‘expert’ time with the perpetual motion machine I have nearly perfected.

You heard it here first - please don’t pass onto the Daily Mail !