Are EVs really the answer in the future? I do not think so. - Page 28

AndyN01 · 11th February 2020, 16:26

So £5 billion across the country for bus and cycle routes and £100 billion (ish) for HS2 to join half a dozen cities that are already connected - albeit not too well.

Is it just me that spots the inequality - or how much more could be achieved with £100 billion in the shortish term in the Regions (very roughly £2 billion per county), rather than a hugely controversial project in a couple of decades.

Andy.

CMOORESY · 11th February 2020, 17:04

A friend of mine works for Scottish Power (one of the many private companies that took over badly managing our power distribution from the old Norweb organisation).
They did a study where they looked at one small district of a small town, looked at what the supply increase would need to be for the amount of households (if they were all charging electric cars).
For starters the substation transformer would need to have around 50% - 70% more capacity that it does now. This would cost around 5 to 6 million pounds to upgrade.
Then there would be all the cabling to carry the extra capacity, They couldn't even start to put a price on that, obviously, underground would be a dam sight more expensive than the poles.

It appears that this may not be fully appreciated.

This would require huge investment and take 10's of years. If this is the plan for 2035, then they better get upgrading immediately. And build a good few coal fired power stations to supply the extra demand when its not windy or sunny.

All this to satisfy a lobby of fanatics who's new religion is a naive theory at best and a worst a sanctimonious vanity project, aimed at deindustrialisation of western culture

SCP440 · 11th February 2020, 17:46

As I said earlier in this thread my guess is that this plan will get delayed for various reasons, and MP Greg Knight has already said something similar. I reckon a lot of people will choose to pay the higher fuel/ road tax than invest in an electric car with terrible range and potential a short life compared with an ICE car. Maybe we will see a lot of '' old'' ICE cars staying on the road once the ban on new ones comes into place?

What I find interesting is they are also saying commercial vehicles will be electric. The vans that are being introduced this year will have a range of less than a 100 miles, what good is that going to be, I do more than that on a quite day? What about all the HGV's?

Lovel · 11th February 2020, 21:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCP440

As I said earlier in this thread my guess is that this plan will get delayed for various reasons, and MP Greg Knight has already said something similar. I reckon a lot of people will choose to pay the higher fuel/ road tax than invest in an electric car with terrible range and potential a short life compared with an ICE car. Maybe we will see a lot of '' old'' ICE cars staying on the road once the ban on new ones comes into place?

What I find interesting is they are also saying commercial vehicles will be electric. The vans that are being introduced this year will have a range of less than a 100 miles, what good is that going to be, I do more than that on a quite day? What about all the HGV's?

Even if they doubled the road tax for a ICE car it would still be cheaper than being up to your neck in debt with a spanking new EV.

Approaching the deadline I see the market for second hand ICE motors going up in price and demand.

WillyHeckaslike · 11th February 2020, 22:57

The likes of Hinckley C (HC) will need a large guaranteed customer base to service their funding models. Energy from renewables is currently less than half the strike price which the expenses fiddlers and the associated selfservice have guaranteed EDF for building HC. They fessed up bigtime with the costings so some are going to have to pay bigtime somewhere down the line. I could be wrong but that is how I see the main reason for the dash to electrify the cash stream from what I suspect at the end of the day will mainly hit ordinary car owners.

kaiser · 12th February 2020, 05:37

Well, give it time. We live in times where badly educated inexperienced people with popular ideas make policies based on very little sound reason. Once these daydreamers are forced to reconcile facts with dreams, they will run against a wall of physics, which will stop them.
The days of hydrocarbon fuels are far from over, and there will be a forced retreat from lofty political goals that are impossible to execute unless we are forced to accept Chinese like adherence to a planned economy.

Electric vehicles are a fad, and an expensive one at that.

SCP440 · 12th February 2020, 06:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by kaiser

Electric vehicles are a fad, and an expensive one at that.

Agreed, why don't they spend the money they are in investing in electric in Hydrogen? Very little would change, we could probably even convert our existing vehicles to run on the stuff and all you get out of the exhaust is steam.

AndyN01 · 12th February 2020, 07:53

The "North of Birmingham" bit is my point.

They are going to spend OUR money on building something VERY expensive that primarily connects Birmingham to London.

Surely the recent election result shows that "London" isn't the be all and end all for most of the country?

As a Brummie I've got plenty of methods of getting to London including rail that takes less than an hour and a half. From Tamworth it's still less than an hour and a half. HS2 will take about 50 minutes - assuming it runs at the headline speed of 250mph. Wow! Mega £ Billions to shave 40 minutes off a journey. Personally I don't think that's remotely cost effective. Meanwhile further North there's massive transport issues that would cost much less to help/resolve whatever you wish to call it.

The M6 Toll is also nearby. Another massively expensive project. Every time I go past it, it's virtually empty. Now, the original projections were 74K vehicles per day (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M6_Toll). As far as I can find out actual usage is about 48K (https://www.ft.com/content/f298af0e-...1-c5e23ef99c77) and seems to be a financial black hole.

I've seen figures of HS2 expecting to carry over 300,000 passengers a day https://www.hs2.org.uk/why/about-us/). I doubt it. Maybe I'll be proved wrong but aren't we moving away from physically going to meetings etc. in favour of group phone calls and Skype and even virtual reality (like Guy Martin's JCB tractor episode)? Or are "they" anticipating thousands of "extra" commuters? If so, where and what are these new jobs?

I wonder if history will repeat itself

.

And to take something from "Yes Minister"......

So's the M4 Why did we get two really good roads to Oxford before any to Southampton or Dover or any of the ports? Nearly all our Permanent Secretaries went to Oxford, Minister, and most Oxford colleges give very good dinners. - The Cabinet allow that? - Certainly not. They said no motorway to take civil servants to Oxford, unless there was one to take Ministers hunting in the shires. That's why the M1 stopped in Leicestershire! Oh, come! What about the M11 just completed? Doesn't Cambridge give as good dinners? Yes, of course, but it's been years since Transport had a Permanent Secretary from Cambridge.

Perhaps there's someone "high up" in/near to Birmingham who might have influenced the decision.....

And yes, IKB was a genius. Where would we be now if we'd had 7 foot gauge track???

Great discussion/debate. Thanks

Andy

Lancpudn · 12th February 2020, 08:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCP440

As I said earlier in this thread my guess is that this plan will get delayed for various reasons, and MP Greg Knight has already said something similar. I reckon a lot of people will choose to pay the higher fuel/ road tax than invest in an electric car with terrible range and potential a short life compared with an ICE car. Maybe we will see a lot of '' old'' ICE cars staying on the road once the ban on new ones comes into place?

What I find interesting is they are also saying commercial vehicles will be electric. The vans that are being introduced this year will have a range of less than a 100 miles, what good is that going to be, I do more than that on a quite day? What about all the HGV's?

I don't know whether they will be able to delay it as by 2030 all new vehicles will have to have a fleet average of 93mpg which basically means only BEV's will be able to meet that kind of MPG.

I think you're right in that people will be keeping hold of their old cars and will run them into the ground as residual values for trade in against a BEV will plummet in the coming years.

They will surely have to bring in a 'clunker bill'

I cant see any car manufacturer investing in more diesel/petrol hybrid tech after 2025 where cars will have to have an mpg of 54.5 mpg in such a short time frame before the ban otherwise they're going to be left with stranded assets.

The big car manufacturers are really struggling to come to terms with this "electric revolution" Daimler Benz announced it's axing 15000 jobs the other day, it wont be the last.

https://europe.autonews.com/automake...ify-paper-says

The UK government are due in court for missing their Paris accord commitments on emission limits & are being taken to court once more by Clientearth over the Drax gas plant. https://www.clientearth.org/drax-legal-case-taking-uk-government-to-court-over-europes-largest-gas-plant/

COLVERT · 12th February 2020, 22:01

The battery swap ( automatic. ) would be even faster than a liquid fill up. Very simple answer to this complex problem.

11th February 2020, 16:26	#271
AndyN01 This is my second home Toyota RAV4 Join Date: Jun 2017 Location: Tamworth Posts: 3,070 Thanks: 2,478 Thanked 1,579 Times in 968 Posts	So £5 billion across the country for bus and cycle routes and £100 billion (ish) for HS2 to join half a dozen cities that are already connected - albeit not too well. Is it just me that spots the inequality - or how much more could be achieved with £100 billion in the shortish term in the Regions (very roughly £2 billion per county), rather than a hugely controversial project in a couple of decades. Andy. Last edited by AndyN01; 11th February 2020 at 16:30..

11th February 2020, 17:04	#272
CMOORESY Avid contributor MG ZT Auto and 75 Tourer Join Date: Feb 2013 Location: Nantwich Posts: 182 Thanks: 8 Thanked 52 Times in 20 Posts	A friend of mine works for Scottish Power (one of the many private companies that took over badly managing our power distribution from the old Norweb organisation). They did a study where they looked at one small district of a small town, looked at what the supply increase would need to be for the amount of households (if they were all charging electric cars). For starters the substation transformer would need to have around 50% - 70% more capacity that it does now. This would cost around 5 to 6 million pounds to upgrade. Then there would be all the cabling to carry the extra capacity, They couldn't even start to put a price on that, obviously, underground would be a dam sight more expensive than the poles. It appears that this may not be fully appreciated. This would require huge investment and take 10's of years. If this is the plan for 2035, then they better get upgrading immediately. And build a good few coal fired power stations to supply the extra demand when its not windy or sunny. All this to satisfy a lobby of fanatics who's new religion is a naive theory at best and a worst a sanctimonious vanity project, aimed at deindustrialisation of western culture Last edited by CMOORESY; 11th February 2020 at 17:18..

12th February 2020, 05:37	#276
kaiser This is my second home 75 Tourer 2.5 Auto, 1.8T, 75V8ZT Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Johannesburg ZA Posts: 6,200 Thanks: 1 Thanked 859 Times in 613 Posts	Well, give it time. We live in times where badly educated inexperienced people with popular ideas make policies based on very little sound reason. Once these daydreamers are forced to reconcile facts with dreams, they will run against a wall of physics, which will stop them. The days of hydrocarbon fuels are far from over, and there will be a forced retreat from lofty political goals that are impossible to execute unless we are forced to accept Chinese like adherence to a planned economy. Electric vehicles are a fad, and an expensive one at that. __________________ Worth his V8 in gold

12th February 2020, 07:53	#278
AndyN01 This is my second home Toyota RAV4 Join Date: Jun 2017 Location: Tamworth Posts: 3,070 Thanks: 2,478 Thanked 1,579 Times in 968 Posts	The "North of Birmingham" bit is my point. They are going to spend OUR money on building something VERY expensive that primarily connects Birmingham to London. Surely the recent election result shows that "London" isn't the be all and end all for most of the country? As a Brummie I've got plenty of methods of getting to London including rail that takes less than an hour and a half. From Tamworth it's still less than an hour and a half. HS2 will take about 50 minutes - assuming it runs at the headline speed of 250mph. Wow! Mega £ Billions to shave 40 minutes off a journey. Personally I don't think that's remotely cost effective. Meanwhile further North there's massive transport issues that would cost much less to help/resolve whatever you wish to call it. The M6 Toll is also nearby. Another massively expensive project. Every time I go past it, it's virtually empty. Now, the original projections were 74K vehicles per day (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M6_Toll). As far as I can find out actual usage is about 48K (https://www.ft.com/content/f298af0e-...1-c5e23ef99c77) and seems to be a financial black hole. I've seen figures of HS2 expecting to carry over 300,000 passengers a day https://www.hs2.org.uk/why/about-us/). I doubt it. Maybe I'll be proved wrong but aren't we moving away from physically going to meetings etc. in favour of group phone calls and Skype and even virtual reality (like Guy Martin's JCB tractor episode)? Or are "they" anticipating thousands of "extra" commuters? If so, where and what are these new jobs? I wonder if history will repeat itself . And to take something from "Yes Minister"...... So's the M4 Why did we get two really good roads to Oxford before any to Southampton or Dover or any of the ports? Nearly all our Permanent Secretaries went to Oxford, Minister, and most Oxford colleges give very good dinners. - The Cabinet allow that? - Certainly not. They said no motorway to take civil servants to Oxford, unless there was one to take Ministers hunting in the shires. That's why the M1 stopped in Leicestershire! Oh, come! What about the M11 just completed? Doesn't Cambridge give as good dinners? Yes, of course, but it's been years since Transport had a Permanent Secretary from Cambridge. Perhaps there's someone "high up" in/near to Birmingham who might have influenced the decision..... And yes, IKB was a genius. Where would we be now if we'd had 7 foot gauge track??? Great discussion/debate. Thanks Andy Last edited by AndyN01; 12th February 2020 at 09:03..

11th February 2020, 17:46	#273
SCP440 I really should get out more....... MG ZT-T 260 Join Date: Feb 2016 Location: Witney Posts: 2,504 Thanks: 6 Thanked 910 Times in 571 Posts	As I said earlier in this thread my guess is that this plan will get delayed for various reasons, and MP Greg Knight has already said something similar. I reckon a lot of people will choose to pay the higher fuel/ road tax than invest in an electric car with terrible range and potential a short life compared with an ICE car. Maybe we will see a lot of '' old'' ICE cars staying on the road once the ban on new ones comes into place? What I find interesting is they are also saying commercial vehicles will be electric. The vans that are being introduced this year will have a range of less than a 100 miles, what good is that going to be, I do more than that on a quite day? What about all the HGV's?

11th February 2020, 22:57	#275
WillyHeckaslike This is my second home Rovers 75 & 25 Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Wearside Posts: 4,520 Thanks: 543 Thanked 709 Times in 511 Posts	The likes of Hinckley C (HC) will need a large guaranteed customer base to service their funding models. Energy from renewables is currently less than half the strike price which the expenses fiddlers and the associated selfservice have guaranteed EDF for building HC. They fessed up bigtime with the costings so some are going to have to pay bigtime somewhere down the line. I could be wrong but that is how I see the main reason for the dash to electrify the cash stream from what I suspect at the end of the day will mainly hit ordinary car owners.

12th February 2020, 22:01	#280
COLVERT This is my second home R75 Saloon. Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: France/or Devon. Posts: 14,003 Thanks: 3,851 Thanked 2,167 Times in 1,816 Posts	The battery swap ( automatic. ) would be even faster than a liquid fill up. Very simple answer to this complex problem.