Whenever I have taken out insurance of this type, there has been an item in the T&C's that the there should not have been an expectation of the reason for cancellation occurring at the time that the insurance is taken out.
If you are able to get cover, it would be worth making sure that it is actually going to cover for the secenario that you have identified as the risk. An excess of say £100 to £150 for a family holiday insurance does not seem excessive IMO.
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