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Old 3rd July 2020, 11:22   #164
Avulon
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Default More numbers that just don't add up.

Just taken a look at the published numbers for test results. And they don't make sense given the wider picture of hysteria and panic.


As of 9am on 2 July the uk has conducted 9,914,663 tests (9.9 million). 283,757 have given positive results. Now, given that those tests more recently conducted (past 6-8 weeks) do include routine tests of NHS staff especially (i.e. people without symptoms) you may expect that the number of positive results would start to move towards the figure in the wider population whether symptomatic or asymptomatic. That is to say how widespread the virus is across the population. So the positive results represent 2.86% of the population. That is all. Now forgive me for being sceptical but at once we're told that this a virus to be feared for it's potential to spread like wildfire. So either that's untrue or the actions taken have been extraordinairily effective. But that still doesn't gel. By any analysis of the spread of Covid-19 in the UK it's clear that there multiple carriers (thousands) in the country by the start of the year. Had that been true, and the virulence as much as advertised then that figure of 2.83% is extraordinairily low given that there was no 'lockdown' until the end of March. The only explanation I can find is that it's already burned itself out in the asymptomatic population. To put that bluntly, As a population many more of us than 2.83% must have already had it and defeated it. Some with barely being aware of it.



Or am I wrong? ... discuss...


[figures source: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi...or-the-public]
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