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Originally Posted by solarsailor
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My own thoughts on the subject:
My best understanding is that in order to retain the current trade deals we have with the other member states after the UK leaves the EU, we'd need to stay in the single market. To be part of the single market would also require remaining in the customs union and continuing to allow free movement of EU nationals, which I personally believe would be the sensible option for the UK's future prosperity.
If we don't stay in the single market once outside of the EU (44% of our export market) it's likely that tariffs under MFN (most favoured nation) rules set out by the WTO would apply, meaning our exporters would become less price competitive and lose business. Likewise, WTO tariffs would be applied to goods we import from the EU - currenty 53% of our total imports - making them more expensive. It's my belief that the combination of both would lead to soaring prices due to runaway inflation. Three of the main policies to control inflation are high interest rates, increased taxation and wage control. Anyone fancy that?
Of course there will be supporters of a 'hard' Brexit, particularly in government, who will argue that if we dump the single market we'll be free to trade with China, the USA and a host of other countries under WTO rules without having to also comply with EU legislation. What they'll fail to mention is that such deals take years to negotiate, by which time the UK economy could (and probably would) be well and truly shafted.
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This discussion on Economics and related matters.
Generally: Your own views as stated are entirely economics based and follow exactly the rationale given by noted and biased (to say the least) opponents of the move.
Their assessments have been dismissed as guesswork by a variety of commentators who refer to multiple previous predictions of gloom which all have failed to materialise – that’s predictions of what would happen in the two years leading up to the event and thereby establishing their reliability!
There is strong belief that they will be likely to be as reliable at guessing what will happen after the event as they have been before it.
For instance, in just the latest indication of future developments, last week it was announced that BMW – yes, that German behemoth – is to build its latest MPV in northern England! And is investing billions in a new factory! They have said they have full confidence in the future of UK trading prospects!
There have been several such declarations of late along with the queue already forming for trade talks – mysteriously not widely covered by the likes of the BBC etc. Guesswork is the management of hoped-for bad news and has no valid currency in such a complex issue.
If I may say you seem transfixed in the headlights of there being a ‘hard’ exit. From recent announcements from Barnier/Juncker/Tusk and speeches by UK government it seems far more likely that a realisation of what will benefit both parties has already broken out. Again, scarcely mentioned in full by the BBC!
To finish, economics are just one important subject. Another is a seldom discussed but equally important one. In fact, to many people, probably more important. The question of self-determination has received no, or very little, public discussion. The depth of feeling and resolve is wide and deep. An examination of this is easier, and more likely, to achieve a consensus than using the crystal ball from a fairground tent.